welcome. let me start with the situation welcome. let me start with the situation as we see it on the outlook situation as we see it on the outlook for the economy. the outlook for growth outlook for the economy. the outlook for growth and unemployment has improved~ for growth and unemployment has improved. six months ago we expected a shallow improved. six months ago we expected a shallow but long recession. since then energy prices have fallen substantially and economic activity is holding substantially and economic activity is holding up better than expected. so today is holding up better than expected. so today we forecast modest but not positive so today we forecast modest but not positive growth and a much smaller increase positive growth and a much smaller increase in positive growth and a much smaller increase in unemployment. we think inflation increase in unemployment. we think inflation will fall quite sharply over inflation will fall quite shar
vacancies high levels as well the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has fallen as a result vacancies to unemployment has fallen as a result. similarlyjob tojob throws as a result. similarlyjob tojob throws have declined a little. ftoors~ throws have declined a little. floors. recruitment difficulties have floors. recruitment difficulties have eased in recent months. employees and moving jobs less frequently and employers getting more frequently and employers getting more applications. nominal pay growth more applications. nominal pay growth is more applications. nominal pay growth is shown in chart six and that is growth is shown in chart six and that is fallen slightly in line with the projections in february. indicators such as hmrc payroll indicator indicators such as hmrc payroll indicator and kpmg salaries index so it could indicator and kpmg salaries index so it could ease later this year. meanwhile service price inflation in chart meanwhile service pri