20, well under water, and this one is perhaps the biggest shock tore me, ron johnson under water at minus 8. an incumbent who has been elected twice. i think john and i were talking beforehand the wisconsin numbers i think are the biggest surprise. it might be the most problematic, for an incumbent you may think the favorability numbers would be the most likely to change. why shouldn t democrats be spiking the football? this is something that we are going to be talking about i think a lot. you know, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. which side outperformed their final senate polls average by year. last year two years ago now, 2020 is two years ago, the gop outperformed by plus 5 points, 2018 there wasn t one but in 2016 the gop senate candidates outperformed their final polls by 3 and in 2014 the gop outperformed their final polls by 3 as well. we have seen this sort of thing where the gop candidates might be underestimated.