time ago, laura, so how much will this be a factor? well, carol, there s two different points in time. of course you have the confirmation hearings, where he already has the benefit of having republican-led congress which probably makes him a shoo-in for the position. then you ve got the issue of actually what happens when he indeed runs, if he is confirmed, the department of justice. remember there have been two things that have been the hallmark of the eric holder and now loretta lynch administrations, running the department of justice. and that has been a concerted effort to reverse some of the effects of the omnibus crime bill and the mandatory minimum sentences, and also with a push towards immigration reform. neither of which jeff sessions has been a fan of. in fact, he is somebody who has been very vocal about the immigration reform movement and also about being opposed to drug minimums, and the justice system. but this is also a person who appears to be respected by his colle
polls. how can polls accurately measure what likely voters are thinking? they did not do well this year. why? one phenomenon to consider here, the bradley effect. that term was first coined 35 years ago when african-american tom bradley, by the polls, looked to be a shoo-in for california s governor. only he lost. some political scientists reasoned thereafter voters were saying yes to pollsters over the phone or in person, but when in the polling booth with nobody around, could not and did not vote for an african-american candidate. with donald trump, it could have been something similar. when asked by a pollster over the phone, donald trump supporters did not admit their support for trump. when in the voting booth with nobody around, they instead did vote for donald trump, a reverse bradley effect, if you will. we saw hint of this during the primaries. 538 found trump polled six
not knowing exactly which vote this is. we ve been putting so much effort into modeling what the absentee votes look like versus the early in-person, versus the day of. the early vote just comes up to steve s point and you ve got instant starting percentages. over to the big board we had a call while steve was speaking. this is a hold for the gop, todd young, indiana senate. this is a senate seat that it s very interesting on this. this is the republican incumbent, left this seat, decided to retire, that was dan coates. the republicans nominated todd young after a little bit of a primary fight there. the democrats did not nominate evan bayh. they picked a guy named baron hill. after the primary was over, he stepped aside so evan bayh because they thought he would be a shoo-in but evan bayh losing
curious decision. the dcsc just the other day pulled their advertising on behalf of patrick murphy, so it leads a lot of us to the conclusion that patrick murphy can t beat marco rubio but hillary clinton can. the magic number, joy, is five. if she carries it by five points or more, marco rubio is in trouble. that s an excellent point. looking at the quinnipiac poll which tends to skew a little bit, it s showing the magic number that fernand puts out is at 48%. what s the likelihood without additional spending from the dncc and barring the super pac coming in that that number can get to the magic number where marco rubio goes down. well, whoever said rubio was a shoo-in earlier on is wrong. you really need to take a look
the obama caucus in 2008. everyone thought hillary was a shoo-in. when i walked out of that des moines high school, i said to my friends from college, it s going to be obama. they were going crazy for obama in des moines. the passion for trump, though, the passion is bigger. 50% of trump supporters that won t vote for anybody else. so there s more passion on his side than any other candidate. i would argue trump is the obama of this cycle. look at the crowds. i think there s tremendous charisma. is that your endorsement? are you supporting i m not ready to nearly go there. what do you mean not nearly he s definitely in my top two. no doubt in my view that donald trump will be the republican nominee. do you think he d be a good president? i think he d be a great president. being a president is being a ceo essentially. he has some hateful ideas that really bug the hell out of me.