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Seven Years to Ground Zero for the Climate Crisis?
The Earth could cross an ominous temperature threshold in just seven years. A new study cuts the time for drastic action.
By Tim Radford
Or it could exceed what is supposed to be the globally-agreed target for containing catastrophic climate change − just 1.5°C above the average level for most of the last 10,000 years − a little later, in the year 2042.
Published 2 March 2021
The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 and 2042 – a much narrower window than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimate of between now and 2052. In a new study, researchers introduce a new and more precise way to project the Earth’s temperature. Based on historical data, it considerably reduces uncertainties compared to previous approaches.
The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 and 2042 – a much narrower window than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimate of between now and 2052. In a study published in
Climate Dynamics, researchers from McGill University introduce a new and more precise way to project the Earth’s temperature. Based on historical data, it considerably reduces uncertainties compared to previous approaches.
The threshold for dangerous global warming will likely be crossed between 2027 and 2042, research indicates.
That’s a much narrower window than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimate of between now and 2052.
In a study published in
Climate Dynamics, researchers introduce a new and more precise way to project the Earth’s temperature. Based on historical data, it considerably reduces uncertainties compared to previous approaches.
Scientists have been making projections of future global warming using climate models for decades. These models play an important role in understanding the Earth’s climate and how it will likely change. But how accurate are they?
An increase of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above pre-industrial average temperatures is seen as a dangerous threshold for the climate of our planet. The official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that it could happen by 2052. A new study has put forward a stricter range; the threshold will be crossed between 2027 and 2042.
As reported in Climate Dynamics, researchers have developed a Scaling Climate Response Function (SCRF) to extrapolate changes to temperatures up to the year 2100. The new method differs from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by the IPCC, which try to simulate the complexity of the climate of the entire planet.