KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House.
The Four Factors That Matter in Predicting 2022 cookpolitical.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from cookpolitical.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
This morning I was speaking (virtually) to a group and went into some detail about what has quickly become the most dominating factor in American politics partisanship, or more accurately, extreme partisanship. But when time came for Q&A, one of the first questions got into the weeds of the 2022 midterm elections, 635 days from now.
So what do or can we know about the midterms? Generally speaking, there are four major factors: history, exposure, environment, and circumstances.