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that s part of it. also in russia s calculus, that triggers a security dilemma. do they keep pushing toward a scenario that increases for structure in europe they don t want. you know, i think weapons are another thing that s important. all these things together on a pressure track will be important. on the engagement track, you also need those face-saving measures and off-ramps. those on the margins could be the security assurances but not unilateral, bilateral, something that services both european and russian interests, not bending to putin s demands. could i just ask, what do you think putin is going to do? i mean, that s a simple question here. is he going to move into ukraine in a big way come january/february? i think february, probably after the olympics, might be a good window to do that. just like he did in 2014 after the sochi olympics. i think you have you know, you have a range of different possibilities. on the one end, this is coercive diplomacy.

Security dilemmaPressure trackEngagement trackSecurity assurancesEastern ukraineBig way come januarySochi olympics