This week delivered an onslaught of economic indicators that provided a first glimpse of economic activity during Q4. In short, the remarkable strength on display during Q3 looks to be fading as the year begins to wind to a close. The labor market was front and center. After September's surprising surge, nonfarm payrolls advanced at a more moderate pace in October, rising by 150,000 net new jobs during the month.
Tony Miller Named President of Janney Montgomery Scott tmcnet.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from tmcnet.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Last week, we published our views on the medium-to-longer term implications of the Israel-Gaza conflict. Our views on the longer-term ramifications have not changed, and in this report, we offer a scenario analysis to gauge the potential evolution of the conflict. We include a non-exhaustive list of key signals that we are watching for how, or if, the intensity of the conflict is changing. We also provide views on how our USD/ILS exchange rate target could change should either of these scenarios appear to be materializing.
Many financial market participants are looking over their shoulders wondering what could be the next catalyst to drive rates higher. What might we see in the rates market, given the conflict in the Middle East and potential inflation drivers from higher commodity prices and overall wartime expenditure from the federal government?