scenario where trump is removed from office and while i m fairly certain you are not ready to predict who will win the election can you tell me if you think he will be reelected? i m not ready to predict this election yet, but i can tell you that the democrats by finally growing a spine and moving forward on a pretty clear impeachment, as your guests have made abundantly clear, have helped themselves because one of my 13 keys to the white house is the scandal key. when donald trump becomes only the third american president to be impeached by the full house, that scandal key will have flipped against him and diminished his chances for reelection. which we should point out the difference is that bill clinton had the impeachment during his second term in office. and the democrats lost in 2000 in an election they otherwise should have easily won. it was the impeachment that sunk the democrats in 2000 at a time of peace, prosperity,
get stomped out, as garrett talked about. allen hreubgt man, a super computer built in, democrats are concerned about the effect this will have. what have you found in your model? democrats have got to stop running scared. in fact, according to my model, impeachment undermines the re-election chances because one of my critical keys that can turn against the incumbent party is the scandal key. and if and when, and i think it s just a matter of when, the house makes donald trump only the third american president to be impeached by the full house, that will turn the scandal key against the president and diminish his chances for
trump. so do you think impeachment will help democrats? absolutely. everybody gets that wrong. the reason i ve been able to predict elections since 1984 is my keys to the white house system, which measures the strength and performance of the party holding the white house. trump would have to lose six keys to be defeated. right now he s only down three keys. the impeachment would nail now as only the third president ever to be impeached, the scandal key. it could trigger other keys like a real challenge to his renomination or a third party. let s not forget after the clinton impeachment, the republicans won the presidency in 2000, an election the democrats should have easily won otherwise. professor, we will have you on i m sure again to weigh in. thanks for joining me tonight. my great pleasure, s.e. we re in a historic moment that will shine a spotlight not just on trump, but on republicans as well. that s next.
msnbc legal analyst danny is a valles. thank you for being here. tell us why the democrats may have to impeach president trump in order to win in 2020? first let me say, that impeachment is not right. not just political but morally and constitution ali, nancy pelosi has said that trump is so bad he should be in jail. that is congressional malpractice not to launch the constitutional remedy of impeachment. here s why it s essential politically. my 13 keys to the white house that have successfully predicted every election since 1984 are based on the proposition that elections are primarily refrn de on the strength and performance of the party holding the white house. and one of the crucial keys that would count against the re-election of donald trump is the scandal key. and through impeachment, through the focused hearings that s the
look at things like campaigns, speeches, debates, ads, i probe the fundamentals that drive elections to strengthen performance. ed: what are two of the three biggest fundamentals you think give the president an edge? obviously he has a very strong economy, he has made policy change, there hasn t been any major foreign policy disaster or extreme social unrest. right now he is down only three keys, it would take six keys to protect his defeat. the one key that is in control of the democrats they seem to be too afraid to invoke and that of course is an impeachment inquiry and ultimately articles of impeachment that would turn a fourth key, the scandal key and reduce his cushion. ed: he keys, is there a