It is after a long period of time that both bulls and bears are visible on the street at the same time and waiting to make the next move. A strong directional move will only come after election results. Before that it is very likely that the market would stay in range bound mode. During this period it would be better to stay with selected stocks, have at your portfolio and do a rejig with focus on fundamentals of the sector and the stocks. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory in their overall average score which is based on five key pillars i.e. earnings, fundamentals, relative valuation, risk and price momentum. This implies that there has been a significant improvement in their market outlook in the given time frame.
When GST was introduced, there was an argument on the street about business shifting from unorganized to organized sector. There were some businesses, where unorganized players were at an advantage because of the fact that they were able to evade taxes and stay competitive. Now that GST has been implemented some sectors have actually seen that advantage due to tax arbitrage going away. This has led to a situation where some companies which had strong brands gained market share. Especially in industries whose overall size is not very large but brands play an important role. For example mattress, small kitchen appliances, water purifiers, the overall size of these industries may not be very large but the players who have strong brands have a huge advantage and are able to charge a premium at all times and they have become a stronger player on the street also. Yes, they may not see very high growth year after year, but their cash flows are stronger in times of slowdown, they tend to outpe
Whether it s institutional or retail investors, the desire to find the next multibagger is always high. But it is not easy to find multibagger stocks for multiple reasons. In the last 30 yearsonly two or three sectors have thrown up multibaggers IT, pharma and some engineering or industrial segments. Now the auto and auto ancillary sectors are transforming. From next Sunday onward, we take a deep dive into individual auto ancillary companies which have either transformed due to EV space or are changing themselves or will go down as they are not relevant in new age of EV.
1994 to 2024 is a difference of 30 years, but there is one thing which has remained constant, advice to move to defensive stocks when markets are volatile or there is an event risk. Four questions need to be asked; first, what is a defensive stock? Second, is a stock which was considered a defensive in 1994 when the Indian economy was just opening, still a defensive stock in 2024 ? Third, should there be a new definition of defensive stock in 2024 ? Last but not the least, what are the new defensive sectors or stocks?
What is the news flow regarding the agrochemical sector today? Probably the following: China is dumping, there is over capacity in many segments, over inventory issues are plaguing the industry globally, erratic weather conditions in different parts of the world. One would feel agro chemical stocks are better avoided now. But in markets, when the news flow is bad, stock prices are probably good. Also, in the case of the agro chemicals sector, it s mostly short term issues. So, it is time to keep them on the watch list.