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well? that s an excellent point. but, actually, we had 50% of our interviews were conducted by cell phones last fall. so that per se was not one of the issues. the issues had to do, actually, with the land line component of our sample. half of our interviews, we were using a sampling frame we think was not right. it was an error and we ve changed that, in the process of changing that. we think the way that we measured race, that is how you ask people what s the race and ethnicity and how we weighted to it was not right. we ve changed that, as well. and we think that was a factor, as well. and also, interviewing. there were times in october as you re discussing. we re now interviewing correct by region was too much in the central time zone as well as the eastern time zone at times and too much in the mountain rather than the pacific out in the west. those are three factors of the way that we conduct surveys which our panel, our internal review, our outside experts may have been respon
you seeing in your state and nationwide use register voters as the sampling frame. but as we move toward a likely voter sampling frame in the fall you will see that romney s percent will increase by two or three personal percentage votes. they will more likely to go republican. neil: how do you know that? guest: we have seen this in year after year. you can trace it back to the 1980 s and 1990 s. the modern political polling. the republicans while there are not as many republicans in country they are competitive in elections largely because they turn out at high are rates and come to the polls at high are rate than democrats. not true in every state. in a state like new hampshire democrats are high income and high education people and they vote about the same rate as republicans but in a lot of the swing states, the lower income voters, minority voters, turn
lie with these numbers, hoping that people think that they re more powerful than they actually are. rick: yet, we put so much credence into these numbers and i mentioned at the top that we journalists, we throw them out there and use them to illustrate points to come up with things to talk about, you mentioned in your book, charles, slow news days, you can always look at a poll. but sometimes here in new york, we ve had two polls this past week on the new york gubernatorial race back to back, one day we saw the democrat was up by only 6 points. the next day the democrat was up by 33 points. what are we to make of these polls that seem to be so all over the map? here is the problem, unless you know the composition of the sample, how many democrats, how many republicans, the likelihood of different constituencies to vote, and how the interviewing was done, you re not able to assess the quality of the information. the polls themselves may well have reflected the reality of each sampli
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