situation and inflation. neil: and i had a chance to talk to sam zelle, i m a name dropper. buys cheap real estate and makes money on it. even with the impacts of the higher rates, he thinks they should go higher. he s fishing around and doesn t see much going on in this environment. if that s right, real estate, to jason s point, has some hurt yet to come, what do you think? yeah, it has some hurt yet to come. the u.s. economy is two-thirds based on consumption. the u.s. consumer derives workout from two sources, home value and 401(k) s, both are underwater and both have further to go. so that means that 2023 is going to turn ugly for consumption. as i mentioned the principal driver of the economy, which up to this point, neil, has been remarkably resilient. the reason for at that
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we hear all the time people say, there s a lot of things i don t like about the president, but the economic picture is good for me. if the economy holds, sam zelle said it earlier this week, he does not see a recession before 2020. if the economy holds, can that carry president trump through the election? it is the thing that trump is going to run on. absolutely. we know that he is signaling that. it gives people who want to support him something to hang their hat on. we heard this in 2016. even people who were rolling their eyes but holding their nose and voting for him saying, well, he is a businessman. he ll be good for my business, for my life. were there people in 2016 that said that? trump s base wasn t saying that the investor class didn t. we talk a lot about people that voted for trump in 2016 as if that was the only election that happened recently. there were the 2018 midterms where we saw dense populations particularly in suburbs and ex-urbs of people saying, look.
phones, and those components coming in. really it is just businesses have no certainty, no confidence, are operating in an environment where the policy on china seems to change tweet to tweet. it is impossible to make the necessary planning and understand and we are starting to see it in the sectors trump has staked his future on, among farming in particular, this manufacturing sector, we see factory outputs slumping. this is a huge risk for him politically going forward in terms of taking away his greatest asset which is a strong economy and actually the self-inflicted trade war wounds. businesses not spending is not disaster territory. we saw businesses pull back during the end of the obama administration because they were worried about potential regulation. when you actually look, unemployment is historically low. wages are ticking up. consumers are spending. sam zelle just yesterday said listen, i get there are warning signs, but i don t actually see a recession before 2020.