The Kremlin said on Thursday that it expected the West to impose ever tougher sanctions on it over the war in Ukraine, but that there was a growing sense that such penalties hurt Western interests while Russia's economy was adapting well. President Vladimir Putin is girding the $2.1 trillion economy for a long war and Western hopes of stoking a swift Russian economic crisis with some of the toughest sanctions ever imposed have not been realised. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Russian growth of 2.2% this year - faster than either the United States or the Euro area - though the Fund last month lowered its forecast for 2024 growth to 1.1%.
Russia's revenues from oil and natural gas are enabling its aggressive and often anti-Western foreign policy. Russia's falling economic performance has toned down Russia's rhetoric, but has not drastically changed Russia's foreign policy narrative, which remains decidedly anti-status quo and implicitly anti-American. The U.S. needs to devise incentives for steps that facilitate Russia's integration into global markets, but deny benefits if Russia continues to pursue anti-American policies or refuses to enact the needed changes.
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