Our Outlook reports always begin with an answer to the question: “Will there be a recession in the upcoming year?” Most years, the answer is “no,” or perhaps “maybe.”
I’ve been working on a few more involved projects but thought it would be good to put down my thoughts on recent energy developments. Gas storage levels are high and continue to grind higher with gas prices now back to mid year lows and falling further. Expiry on the October TTF contract is going to be interesting - what happens if storage is at close to its limits as was the case for oil in April 2020? I do not expect this to quite trade at a negative price but a very mild weather forecast and high storage levels can lead to strange things happening.