Daily FX Market Roundup December 21, 2020
The second to last week of December kicked off with losses in currencies and equities. By the end of the NY session however, much of the weakness eased leading many investors to wonder if anything could sap the equity rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more 400 points shortly after the NY open but ended the day flat. The dollar started the day strong but gave up part of its gains as well. This is a shortened trading week but a variety of factors could influence how the dollar trades. Congress reached an agreement on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package that would keep millions of Americans from losing their jobless benefits. This is no panacea for the economy but its a breath of fresh air after months of haggling. Unfortunately this deal failed to lift stocks because of broader, more concerning factors.
December 18, 2020
Daily FX Market Roundup December 18, 2020
It has been a challenging week for the US dollar. The greenback fell to fresh 2.5 year lows against most of the major currencies but as the week drew to a close, it finally rebounded. While some may hope that this marks a bottom for the dollar, there’s scope for further losses in the coming week. Vaccine progress and the prospect of a stimulus deal are some of the main reasons for the dollar’s weakness and that is not expected to change. Stimulus talks are progressing and there’s talk that an agreement may be reached over the weekend. While it falls significantly short of the support offered in March, it would provide millions of Americans with much needed relief. Moderna is on track to have their vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration, making it the second vaccine available to the American public – this could happen as early as Monday. So the rally in equities next week could be renewed by the c
December 16, 2020
Daily FX Market Roundup December 16, 2020
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announced failed to stem the dollar’s slide. The greenback traded lower against most of the major currencies with the only exceptions being the Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc, which rallied on the back of short covering. On balance, the outcome of the FOMC meeting was less dovish. The central bank left interest rates unchanged, dialed up their expectations for growth and put some specific numbers around their Treasury and mortgage backed securities purchases. They didn’t extend the maturity of asset purchases which was widely anticipated and the decision to be less aggressive is supported by Fed Chairman Powell’s view that the economy should perform strongly in the second half of 2021 thanks to the vaccine. The greenback jumped in response but the rally lost its sizzle when he made it clear that they will continue buying bonds until there is substantial progress made on th
December 17, 2020
Daily FX Market Roundup December 17, 2020
Risk appetite remains strong with equities and currencies extending their gains on Thursday. The growing prospect of a stimulus deal in the US and a Brexit agreement in the UK drove investors out of safe have currencies like the US dollar and Japanese Yen. High beta currencies took flight with strong gains in sterling, the New Zealand and Australian dollars. The greenback fell to fresh 2.5 year lows on the back of mostly weaker data. Although building permits rose strongly, housing starts grew at a slower pace, the Philadelphia Fed index tumbled to 11.1 from 26.3, a reading that was much weaker than anticipated. Most importantly, jobless claims continued to rise from 853K to 885K, reinforcing Fed Chairman Powell’s plans to keep interest rates at zero for the next few years.