the polling before 2000 before 04, before 08 and the electoral projections based on all of the polling that we trusted in the good polling we were very careful we didn t just use any old robo poll at the time, same with what we do here, and they were right in line. and it s a proof that the undecided vote, just like in 04, happened again in 2000, happened in 08, and it s likely to happen now, only breaks about 55/45 in favor of one candidate over the other. so there isn t this heavy break. i go back to 80, everybody says it broke in 80. we also didn t have the same amount of data in 1980 that we do today. and that s something that was it breaking or was it slowly moving, and would you have seen it in better shape, i think, when you look back at history, reagan s folks say they saw this building a lot longer than when it happened. the other part of this is, you know, both could be right. remember john kerry four days
just an overall what the overall polls, the national polls show, which is a much closer race for romney. and that and the old reagan model of hey, it kind of it came at the last minute, that there was this last-minute decision heading into the polls that i m going to make that change. and so i m not sure there s something obviously, they can t point to a track in the battleground polls today that says this, this, this and see how that indicates we re going to win. you know, so i think they re stuck back on that argument of look at how good we re doing, you know, in the overall 50-state polling. we think that s going to have an effect. well, and there are two particular pieces to that, right? and i m going to ask david and chuck to explain this for me. but the interesting things are that right now the national polling shows mitt romney ahead with independents. it s very rare for anybody to win the presidential election
you had the struggle of civil rights just in its incipient stage. just starting to take hold in the country. and you had young black teenagers dancing on american bandstand. it was a huge step forward. there s a great story, john meacham, in the new york times op-ed from ted harbart, who incidentally is our boss now, but worked at abc with dick clark for such a long time, about what a great showman he was. but that he shot a lot of the acts performing on new year s eve in l.a. in august. dirty little secret. there would be people with the new year s eve garb smoking cigarettes and it was 100 degrees outside in burbank. but dick clark did what he had to do when he put the story together. that s like the old reagan story. when he was making the second movie of the b features, he would say, sometimes they would wonder why we were on a dir ijible sinking, it was because we had footage of the dir ijable
two. god knows we do it here. but he had a line of attack that i think he needs to stay on. if he that i think will really work. and that is, basically, stop blaming bush. even if you inherited a lot of bad things from george w. bush, this is your economy now. you said it yourself. when you got inaugurated, that three years in, it would be your economy. and it would be your blame. now, we ve been discussing of course on this show, and john meach meacham, we discussed last night the fact that you can t blame this economy on barack obama any more than you can blame it on george w. bush, any more than you can blame it on bill clinton, any more than you can blame it on bush the first or reagan. yes, their policies do have a big impact abou. but we are in the middle of a 30
the old reagan dodge. how will do you what you say you want to do. central pain rt is reduce the d. tells us how. the obama campaign will tell you he embraced the paul ryan plan which changes meld i care to voucher, paul ryan, paul ryan, paul ryan. we ll follow the race in ohio, that is too close to call, too early to call in tennessee and in oklahoma, msnbc s coverage of super tuesday continues in a moment.