The Daily Yonder Tracing the Divide: Urban and Rural Voting Preferences Started to Diverge in the 1970s When we group counties by how rural or urban they are, we see voting patterns that go back a half century.
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Robert Cushing based on Dave Leip s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Office of Management and Budget, and U.S. Census
Yes, the growing political divide in the United States has a geographic base. We can see that quite clearly in election results stretching back for more than a century.
The charts below show the percent of the Republican vote since 1912 by geography. (We used only Republican and Democratic votes for this calculation.) All the charts show that for most of the past century, the vote by place has jumped around.
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The graph compares population growth in large metro counties to small metros and nonmetro counties. Large metro counties include the core and suburban counties of metros of 1 million or more and the central counties of metros with 250,000 to 1 million. (Robert Cushing using Census population estimates)
The overwhelming population growth story of the past 50 years has been the increasing concentration of people in central cities and their suburbs. At the same time, growth has slowed in rural America and in smaller cities.
The central counties in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas (those with more than a million people) include just 2% of all counties, 59 of 3,142. But these few counties account for 24% the nation’s population growth over the past five decades.