Having a free and Fair Election without external intervention, even when both sides were perfectly wellprepared to play by the rules. We now have a situation before the pandemic hit where that is much more problematic, where issues of saying there is voter fraud happening, impersonations, you should not be doing vote by mail. All of the president s all of the measures for a president who is well behind in the polls but has the ability to shape the outcomes of the way the election is put together. In the Worlds Largest economy, the idea that the election will be contested and half of the population will think it is rigged even before the pandemic hit, we thought that was the single largest risk affecting the markets in 2020. Of course, the pandemic makes this a lot worse. Inid it strikes me that 2016 most of us were not thinking about the election being contaminated by social media disinformation, russia trying to intervene in the election. Now we know what happened. We have much better
It is healthy if we have cyclical sectors doing well. On the other hand, and on the idea we are recovering are going toward a reopening, if you have the stayathome stock such as the apples and amazons or some trades. Ther it will be interesting to see how this works out. Right now it is resulting in jitters. That with warned us the fans they might have gone too far, too fast. Youve been warning us. What about the news of a possible vaccine . That seem to capture the markets attention for a wild. Abigail , it did, and actually yesterday, too. Produce that bullish open. Behind the scenes on the day, it is coming down to the dollar. We have a strong inverse relationship as happens in certain periods of time between the dollar and stop in risk assets. Today we have the dollar down. 5 . Now it is down. 3 . That is incredible sensitivity to a change of just. 2 over last month. The dollar is down, the s p 500 is up. Up, the year, the dollar is the s p 500 is down. That subtle nuance happening
Signs that the economy is on the mend. You have the manufacturing report that showed us back in positive territory. Manufacturing is no longer contracting and it confirms the positive reading we got in last weeks empire manufacturing. Indicators higher than expected on the other hand, jobless claims coming above one million. A waitandseein mode. We have seen the s p 500 go to the nearest peak and then last thursday happened, a sharp drop with a longoverdue pullback. We briefly dipped below 2000 in the s p 500. Recovery once again is the Federal Reserve gave more details on its plans to buy corporate bonds, not just , but individually, which resulted in a 77 point range in the last three days. We can see the dip come back again as a mantra for the markets. Volume has been lighter than average. Perhaps that plays into it. Maybe we will see volume pick up once again after that but we are after memorial day. David i look forward to this. Thank you for that report on the markets. John bolto
I included Newmont Mining because gold is nearing 1800 an ounce. Sovereign yields are also down. The german 30 year yield falling below zero again today. Airlines and Cruise Companies make up four of the five worst performers in the s p 500. That is the flipside of the move to safety. Big will have the carriers are burning through as much as 45 million daylight, which is still very weak. The flipside is the bid for stayathome stocks. Netflix and clorox making new record highs. Netflix extending its gain to six days. 2020, even2 in though it trades at 32 times earning as opposed to credit to 20 times for Consumer Staples Everyone Needs their clorox wipes. David you can never get enough clorox. Thanks to scarlet fu. Lets talk about the big rally President Trump plant in tulsa. The rally was saturday, but he had 6000 people in an arena set up for 19,000. They thought they would have overflow. They have the reverse. Lets bring in rick davis, our political contributor at bloomberg. They rea
The other sectors such as tech and health care. The stayathome sectors turn into the new defense, calling into question the rally. We have haven assets rallying in a significant way. Dollaryen down more than 1 . The 10 year yield reversing. It had been a sixday backup. Now 10 year yields is trading lower. That tells you there is a move into bonds. If you start to see haven assets rally, especially on the back of a strong move up, you wonder what are traders looking at. Are they just treading water waiting to see how this resolved or is it a talent on something that is about a flareup, which is u. S. China relations not liking the cyclical rally, maybe it has gone too far, too fast. There is questioning around the payrolls report on friday. David a lot of indicators pointing in different directions. What about the yield curve . There is a lot of information about the yield curve that is deepened. What does that tell us about what is coming down the road . Abigail the last time i looked