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New data show violent crime is up, but is also down

New data show violent crime is up, but is also down
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Violent crime is up … and also down, according to new federal data

Forecasts need to have error bars

Richard Rosenfeld in the most recent Criminologist published a piece about forecasting national level crime rates. People complain about the FBI releasing crime stats a year late, academics are worse; Richard provided “forecasts” for 2021 through 2025 for an article published in late 2023. Even ignoring the stalecasts that Richard provided – these forecasts had/have…

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