For some reason, companies laying off large numbers of people (most recently Better, Freedom, Mr. Cooper) make headlines, whereas shouldn’t the unusual, like companies that aren’t laying off anyone or who are hiring, be more newsworthy? There are indeed companies that are not laying off anyone, and in fact are hiring to take advantage of slow times. There is other good news. Despite inflation, elevated mortgage rates, and slowing sales activity, severely limited housing inventory will prevent large home price drops for most of the country next year according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in his 2023 outlook. “For most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low. Some places are experiencing price gains, while some places, most notably in California, are seeing prices pull back… Housing inventory is about a quarter of what it was in 2008, distressed property sales are almost non-existent, at just 2%, a
For me, the next ten days includes time in Chicago, the Wisconsin Dells, and Atlanta. It isn’t a scary agenda. At the ready for tonight’s Halloween fun? Polls seem to indicate that the most popular treat is Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups, followed by Reese’s Miniatures, Twix, Kit Kat, and Snickers. Regardless of treats being handed out at doorsteps, there are “ticks” in an unfortunate affordable housing situation that is an example of the difficulty of implementing housing programs. About 5,600 people live in the ski town of Vail, Colorado. But during the busy season thousands of people work there, and there aren’t enough nearby places to live for that workforce. Right now there’s an estimated deficit of 6,000 beds for the work force in the county, and in order to address that the ski resort Vail sought to build a project on-site to house 165 employees. The town’s existing population got upset, as many residents don’t wa
As the MBA’s conference in Nashville wraps up, lenders and vendors are in an interesting mindset. Optimists are saying, “There’s a lot of opportunity out there” and, “Rates will come back down and refis will give us some oomph.” The pessimists are saying, “Why do I care about multi-year Agency goals when I’ll be lucky to make it through the next two quarters. We’re just trying to cut costs fast enough, including LO comp, and outlast our competition.” Lenders everywhere are doing what they can now to make themselves more efficient, fearing rougher times ahead. Banks and credit unions are looking at cross-training skillsets: Prioritizing coverage and making sure to cross-train so people can play to their strengths. Analyzing what tasks they're doing, and the best people to do it. Workflow? Lenders are minimizing file touches, using a cheaper resource for parts of the file, and moving more duties from underwriti
Here in Orange County, the mortgage talk runs the gamut. Sure, a recession would cause rates to drop, but before that happens, are residential lenders looking at a long autumn and winter? Our biz is dealing with broad topics such as affordable housing, housing inventory being impacted by potential sellers taking properties off the market, and the general trend in mortgage rates, all the way down to the cost of credit reports potentially approaching $100 per report and making sure you talk to your warehouse lender weekly (not weakly). Lenders are looking at cross-training skillsets: Prioritizing coverage and making sure to cross-train so people can play to their strengths. Analyzing what tasks they're doing, and the best people to do it. Workflow? Lenders are minimizing file touches, using a cheaper resource for parts of the file, and moving more duties from underwriting to cheaper personnel. Using checklists: Once a file hits intake, if there is enough information to make a cre
Now we have a butter shortage raising prices ahead of the holidays. Great. While margarine makers are licking their chops over the news, vegans and other readers should know that no animals are ever harmed in the making of this commentary! But speaking of harm, in the current environment, and probably for the next couple quarters, vendors and lenders working 30 percent harder to make 40 percent less. Or worse. If the Fed’s actions can push asset prices higher, it’s actions can also push asset prices lower, right? Indeed, many will argue that is what we’re seeing now, and despite the Fed making its future actions clear, I am reminded of the old saying, “Don’t fight the Fed.” So be cautious when seeing any rate move down. (More below in the capital markets section.) Many in our industry are using this lull in business activity to attend conferences (last week’s Mortgage Collaborative conference had over 400 registered; this week’s M