Several weeks of elevated supply should theoretically be "weighing more on performance, but the market is now just ahead of its largest reinvestment season, which so far in 2024 has become even more pronounced, with an additional $19.5 billion scheduled for call/redemption between [June 1 and August 30]," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.
"While we acknowledge that the market tone is weaker [Monday], we are generally constructive regarding valuations and expect this week's supply to be absorbed fairly well after last week's giveback of the richening witnessed over prior weeks," said Vikram Rai, head of municipal markets strategy at Wells Fargo.
There are nearly 30 new-issues over $100 million on tap across the credit spectrum, led by the week's largest negotiated deal from Harris County, Texas, with $950 million of toll road first lien revenue and refunding bonds. The competitive calendar ticks up with several high-grade names.
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The CPI print keeps the possibility of the Fed cutting rates at least once this year, potentially at least two rate cuts if the data continues to point to a trend of inflation falling further, said Jeff Lipton, a research analyst and market strategist.