One global crisis to another. This probably sums up the story of the real estate sector in India. It was the global financial crisis of 2008, which hit the real estate sector very badly. It was the global covid crisis, which got it out from the dumps. Excess inventory, over leveraged balance sheets and weak demand were some of the factors which plagued the sector till 2020. Post that period, excess liquidity, the need to have a bigger house, companies having learnt lessons about what not to do when time is good probably defines the listed real estate sector in India.
“Both REC and PFC continue to be under-owned by the investors vis-à-vis banks and other financial stocks. So, both will continue to do well and that could be a re-rating. Plus they have a healthy dividend payout also. REC and PFC s payout policy of 30% distributing that will remain healthy.”
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Like business and economic cycles, stock markets also have cycles where they will take a liking to a particular sector in such a manner that valuations will go through the roof. Then comes a phase, where the same sector is thrown down the dumps. Real estate sector is one sector where in 2008, valuations were at their peak. then come and fall and by the start of 2020 valuations were in the dumps. While they made a comeback when covid rally took place in 2020, multiple factors have kept the focus on the real estate stocks for the last more than two years. Given the changes which some laws have brought and the fact that some promoters have learnt the lesson the hard way, will the real estate stock be able to deliver consistent returns?