RBI MPC: India s policymakers see a Goldilocks scenario with a 4.5% inflation and 7% growth forecast for FY25, suggesting a balanced economy. The Reserve Bank of India s Monetary Policy Committee agrees on the need for caution amid uncertainties. While optimistic about growth, economists urge vigilance due to global headwinds. Nomura expects a cumulative 100 bps rate cut, while others predict a pause until H1FY25.
India s policymakers see a Goldilocks scenario with a 4.5% inflation and 7% growth forecast for FY25, suggesting a balanced economy. The Reserve Bank of India s Monetary Policy Committee agrees on the need for caution amid uncertainties. While optimistic about growth, economists urge vigilance due to global headwinds. Nomura expects a cumulative 100 bps rate cut, while others predict a pause until H1FY25.
At this juncture, monetary policy must remain vigilant and "not assume that our job on the inflation front is over", says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, as per the minutes of the RBI MPC's February meeting
Kotak Institutional Equities expects the first repo rate cut to only be in the third quarter of the financial year 2025 (Q3FY25). However, prior to rate cuts, the brokerage expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to change its stance to neutral.