Center stage and treasuries weaken with the curve flattening after last weeks definitive move higher. Joining us for the hour, dan nathan a real Holding Pattern here today. Are we waiting for news out of washington heres the good news, right we had this big rip up off of the lows last week on optimism that there would be some sort of grand deal as far as trade is concerned. The fact that it doesnt look like that were going to get that at the end of the day, the fact that were not down in a meaningful manner is fairly establish. Could things change pretty quickly if the fed decides top pull our negotiators away and we know were dead in the water for a couple of months no doubt about it. Its kind of interesting on a day like today, where we dont see staples and utilities. These are two of the bestperforming groups, deemed to be defensei you dont see them rallying and dont see the s p 500 down a lot either it seems like a lot of nothing despite some really potential for volatility later i
Good morning, everyone. Just gone 6 00 a. M. , lots of earnings coming through from the european banks. Let me recap ubs to start with. The key number is Second Quarter net at 1. 4 billion. The estimate was my hundred 57 million. Was 957 million. In terms of the Second Quarter profit pretax is up 3 year on year. Ubs Global Wealth management posting to billion dollars of outflows in the Second Quarter. Global Wealth Management nets new money, but overall the Second Quarter net beating. Sergio ermotti really seeing a revival of the fortunes in the Second Quarter after what he called one of the worst starts to the year in recent history. The bank posting its highest quarterly net profit in almost a decade, seeing a boost to the u. S. Wealth profit. Coming up, we will speak to the ubs Ceo Sergio Ermotti and get all the details. Dont miss that conversation with manus cranny later in the show. If you want to keep uptodate, there is a fantastic tliv blog on the bloomberg. Lets move on to sant
Rates because they have already accounted for trade. Id weve taken caracalla weve taken care of that, i didnt have to worry about every up and down in trade negotiations. The nature of the war is that you have titfortat going on all the time. It is not reasonable for Monetary Policy to respond to all of these threats and counter threats. Weve already taken that into account. Trade regime uncertainty is high , and we are putting that into the Monetary Policy calculus. Alix then you have a three month tenure curve that doesnt want to listen threemonth10 year curve that doesnt want to listen. David i dont think markets believe him. Alix it is an extraordinary day shaking out. Equities continue to climb. We are seeing some followthrough buying, watching some moving averages. In asset classes, it is a really unbelievable day. Money flooding into all bonds. Europe. Ves over in almost 60 basis points in the tenure german bund yield. Amazing actions by Central Banks across the world, new zeala
Thought. Meanwhile, the president faces pushback from the chinese for those business deals with taiwan. The chinese are vowing to push back with tariffs of their own. The tier four continues. The Business Community against those tariffs. Strongsident setting the Economic Growth market despite fed policy. David we will turn back to china in a moment. Will the president have one less soldier in his army for the tariff war . That is wilbur ross. Facingwilbur ross questions, according to nbc news, questions about his future following reports of the senses question the census question. The president thing the commerce secretary should try to get that no matter what. This is one of those issues that the Business Community is at odds with the administration over. Their apprehension over the Citizenship Question being added to the census because of how it would impact their ability to make economic forecast. David thank you so much for reporting from the white house. Lets turn to Damian Sassow
In the 90s and early 00s. Now this comes hot on the heels of disappointing china trade data on tuesday showing exports sank at their fastest rate since the pandemic. Global demand for chinese made goods is falling, down more 14 in the year tojuly. But domestic demand is down too with imports also falling by more than 12 in the same period. Earlier, i spoke to janet mui, whos the head of Market Analysis at rbc brewin dolphin, and she explained where the deflation was coming from. Deflation data, basically mostly coming from food prices and also commodities prices like raw materials, energy, etc. Actually, if you look at the underlying inflation, things like services, things like tourism, leisure, hotels, actually they are up. The Core Inflation is up from 0. 4 to 0. 8 , but obviously its still pretty muted. So overall, i think it is a concern that china prices are contracting and it could be lasting for a while as well. How likely do you think it is, though, that china is going to be