chance of a soft landing built in. what would that take? soft landing could happen. it is not our base case, but it could happen because inflation is coming down and so what is going to happen is wages and salaries are going up, inflation is starting to come down, that helps that purchasing power that i talked about before. and if the fed pauses in its rate hiking cycle, what you could potentially see, a narrow window, but we get through that window without a recession and as you get more and more real income, as the job market remains relatively strong, you could have a so-called soft landing. so a lot of questions about that yet, but again, our base case is a mild recession this year. i think mild is the key here. coming from such a strong base last year, strong market still pretty strong. thank you so much for stopping by. ahead, the vice president expected today at tyre nichols
reserve starting to wrap up its two day policy meeting with another rate hike. what should we expect? yeah, that s right, so markets are pricing in a 25 basis point hike. at this point it s pretty much set in stone they re going to go for that 25 base point hike with their eighth consecutive rate hike, and does show the fed has started to slow down the pace of rate hikes towards what we were getting to the end of last year with those 50 and 75 base point increments. but we re getting closer to the end of the rate hiking cycle. we re about 50 basis points away if they do hike 25 basis points where they see terminal rate. so investors are very much focused on the messaging going to come out of today s meeting, what chair powell has to say about the state of the economy, whether there are further views on a possible recession and the fed forecasting it and how they re doing in that fight against inflation. seems to be growing hope on a soft landing at least here in
hiking cycle, but it often takes nine months or more for these rate hikes to filter through. we have to remember, too, the fed didn t really get serious with these jumbo 75 basis point hikes until june. it s going to be some time. we saw some evidence last week in the latest inflation report that inflation is coming down slightly, but we need to see more progress in the months to come. it seems that fed may start to dial back the pace of these increases and give them more time to filter through the economy. i think we could be stuck with high credit card rates for the foreseeable future. and that s tough, given that we re entering the holiday shopping season. we re a few weeks out from thanksgiving and black friday, a lot of people thinking what are they going to get their loved ones. what do you think this high apr average is going to do to impact retail sales? credit card rates are very high, and i think honestly, this
the federal reserve is holding its highly an tis paid meeting as worries about the u.s. economy remain top of mind. some good news, job openings in the u.s. are up, not surprised many economists who thought they d dropped. what s the expectation from the fed now? so another three-quarters of 1% which if you at home are losing track the fourth in row so to put this in perspective the fed s raised its benchmark in just seven months something we haven t seen in modern history, in fact if you go to the last rate hiking cycle they did less than a period in three years, this is pretty aggressive. why you re starting to hear from
accessible housing were very much in contrast to trends that prevailed not just when we got here but, really, for ten years. hence, when the supply of housing was just really inadequate especially for middle and lower income folks. and so in the biden/harris administration we recognize that our racial equity agenda is intimately tied to more affordable housing in the long run. we have a set of policies and plans to get us there. in the near term when the fed is in a rate hiking cycle like they re in right now, you re always going to see housing react first. and the cooling of that market that we re seeing on the back of these rising mortgage rates is actually something that is important for the overall economy right now. you didn t say steady and stable. i thought that steady and stable was the message i expected to get that response. well, look. steady and stable when it comes to gdp growth, but that housing market needed to cool. the federal reserve was well aware of that. they d