The April 2022 CfM survey asked members of its European panel to assess the effects of an embargo on Russian gas on the German and EU economies. The majority of panellists assesses that an embargo on Russian gas would cut one to three percentage points from German GDP growth in 2022-3, if the German government offsets the costs with well-targeted fiscal policy. Estimates
Fiscal rules were enshrined in the founding documents of the European Monetary Union. This column presents the latest CfM-CEPR survey, in which the panel of experts on the European economy were nearly unanimous in agreeing that the existing EU fiscal rules require revision. Most panel members would opt for some combination of fiscal councils; more flexible, countercyclical, or
Markus K Brunnermeier, Jean-Pierre Landau
Concerns about climate change have been central to the economic policy discussion in recent decades, with increasing urgency. More recently, debates have emerged on central banks’ role in mitigating climate change, or on increasing their awareness of their environmental impact (Brunnermeier and Landau 2020). The February 2021 CfM-CEPR survey asked members of its European panel of experts about measures the ECB could take to address the environmental impact of its bond-purchasing policies, in light of some suggestions that the bonds the central bank purchases overweigh industries that have negative environmental impact. The panel was also asked whether it would consider changing the ECB’s mandate to contain environmental targets.