welcome. let me start with the situation welcome. let me start with the situation as we see it on the outlook situation as we see it on the outlook for the economy. the outlook for growth outlook for the economy. the outlook for growth and unemployment has improved~ for growth and unemployment has improved. six months ago we expected a shallow improved. six months ago we expected a shallow but long recession. since then energy prices have fallen substantially and economic activity is holding substantially and economic activity is holding up better than expected. so today is holding up better than expected. so today we forecast modest but not positive so today we forecast modest but not positive growth and a much smaller increase positive growth and a much smaller increase in positive growth and a much smaller increase in unemployment. we think inflation increase in unemployment. we think inflation will fall quite sharply over inflation will fall quite shar
domestic seen interact with the state of the domestic economy. as headline inftation domestic economy. as headline inflation falls the second round effects inflation falls the second round effects are as unlikely to go away as quickly effects are as unlikely to go away as quickly as they appeared. the mpc judges as quickly as they appeared. the mpc judges that is important in a cemetery in inflationary dynamics this is cemetery in inflationary dynamics this is why cemetery in inflationary dynamics this is why even as headline inftation this is why even as headline inflation comes down the mpc pays particular inflation comes down the mpc pays particular attention to indicators of inflation persistence such as tabour of inflation persistence such as labour market tightness and wage growth labour market tightness and wage growth in labour market tightness and wage growth in services inflation. since the february report the news on these the february report the news on