Fitch Ratings has affirmed Thailand’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BBB+’ with a Stable Outlook. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary. Key Rating DriversExternal Strengths, Structural Constraints: Thailand’s ratings are underpinned by its robust external finances and strong macroeconomic policy framework, which should bolster […]
Key Rating Drivers
The revision of the Outlook to Positive reflects our baseline expectation that Benin will return to strong growth as the impact of the pandemic fades and following the re-opening of the border with Nigeria. It also reflects our view that the government will gradually reverse the temporary deterioration in public finances and stabilise government debt at well below the forecast ‘B’ median over the next few years.
The re-opening of the border, shut by Nigeria between August 2019 and December 2020, should allow bilateral trade flows to recover in 2021. However, the impact is likely to be moderate as quarterly official trade data signals that the 800km border probably remained partially porous during part of the closure. Official imports, around 40% of which are smuggled to Nigeria, started to recover in 2Q20 and reached around 80% of pre-closure levels by 3Q20. Ongoing discussions between both governments reflect an easing of relations and limit the risk