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A year ago, a recession was seen as a foregone conclusion and yet the Fed appears to have successfully lowered inflation without triggering a recession. Many of the negative forecasts followed a pattern of underestimating the U.S. economy’s resilience, typically because they were based on historical models and precedent, not situational and idiosyncratic context. While the soft landing may be progressing with promise, it won’t be an end state a new disequilibrium will emerge. Leaders can’t wait for macroeconomic certainty or stability. Instead, they must recognize that the macroeconomy will remain untamed by models and that what matters is judgment.

Congressional budget officeFederal reserveBureau of labor statisticsNational bureau of economic researchLabor statisticsNational bureauEconomic researchProgress toward