Natalia Martín Fuentes, Isabella Moder 05 February 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented shock to the global economy and its potential scarring effects are thus difficult to predict. This column presents estimates of the long-term impact of past crises, suggesting that past epidemics and other exogenous shocks did not cause scarring effects, while the negative impact of financial crises on the long-term level of potential growth tends to be persistent. However, unlike previous exogenous shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic could affect the supply side of the economy through several channels and thus lead to a permanently lower level of potential output.
now people do. bret: at the beginning of the democrats were saying wages are growing, but now they are. good for workers, but with wages rising, what does it mean for inflation? obviously the fed and the economy s long-run? we got a set of productivity data this morning that shows we are as close to a goldilocks scenario as we can be right now. not too hot, not too low, and president trump has been very vocal in being proud of the economy. here he is. nobody has ever been president that has had the greatest economy in the history of our country. these are the greatest unemployment and unemployment numbers in the history of our country. nobody has ever had that the campaign with that, so i do. the president has the wind in his sails on this front, the longer term question is a bit shakier. the fed is changing rates even though chairman powell has been telegraphing that, the plan is out there. but only one fed has been able