Projection that we present today is very much into parts. Im going to begin with the first part. Starting near term outlook. This chart shows the evolution of Consumer Price inflation and its components since 2018. It shows that inflation has come off the peak in october last year and that it continues to fall over the rest of this year in our near term projection. Thats the piece showed in the shade of part of the chart. This fall can be attributed in large part to a full on contribution from energy. Fuel prices have declined, electricity and gas prices have stabilised, albeit at a higher level. The Dark Orange Bars on this chart show how the contribution from Energy Prices falling and turning negatively in the coming months. Giving off gems price cap on energy and gas bills, we expect inflation to take a further step down in the july dates will be published in two weeks time. That will come down to around 7 at that point. Following a larger step down in 0ctober s data to around about
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which path we end up being on will depend on the evidence and on the evidence of persistence. that is what is driving the decision. abs, evidence of persistence. that is what is driving the decision. ads, 11th what is driving the decision. a lot ofthe what is driving the decision. a lot of the upgrades what is driving the decision. a lot of the upgrades that what is driving the decision. a lot of the upgrades that you - what is driving the decision. a lot of the upgrades that you have made to your of the upgrades that you have made to your inflation forecasts in the latter to your inflation forecasts in the latter part to your inflation forecasts in the latter part to do with the nbc recognising that some of the risks to inflation that you have warned about to inflation that you have warned about in to inflation that you have warned about in previous forecasts are in fact starting to happen. why are you only 30 fact starting to happen. why are you only 30 starting to reco
here, back last november, saying we thought it was going to be a long shallow root session, a lot of that was based on energy prices which are much higher. that has not transpired. we have had a much different and resilient picture of economic activity. we have seen some increase in unemployment, but we all want to. their arguments that you can deftly put the other way. in the run up to the june 50 basis point in the run up to the june 50 basis point hike, in the run up to the june 50 basis point hike, we saw two upward surprises point hike, we saw two upward surprises in cpi. going in today s decision, surprises in cpi. going in today s decision, we had won downwards a prize decision, we had won downwards a prize in decision, we had won downwards a prize in cpi decision, we had won downwards a prize in cpi figures. i have a question prize in cpi figures. i have a question about your reaction going
will help to return inflation to its target. i m not going to judge what the path of rates will be, not last because as report indicates, more than one half made deliver inflation targets full stop we have ta ken than one half made deliver inflation targets full stop we have taken the decision today and we will go on judging what is most appropriate based on the evidence that we will see. the mpc will continue to monitor closely indications of inflationary pressures, including the tightness of labour market conditions and the behaviour of wage growth and service price inflation. if there were to be evidence for more persistent pressures, then further tightening would be required. we will ensure that bank rate is sufficiently restricted for sufficiently long to turn inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, in light with the rebate. with that, we will be happy to take your questions. thank you.