Delivering a series of cuts. This creates enough uncertainty where even the strong payrolls report that we got today is likely going to secure that cut. We are going to get a 50 basis points one way or another. R. Trump now knows the buttons he has to press to get the outcomes that he wants. Good policy, that policy, the white house is listening. That is why you are seeing the president be so aggressive right now. To the extent trump continues to push on the trade war and that hurts Economic Growth and creates a downside risks, presumably means Central Banks will push more in terms of easier Monetary Policy. Jay powell has made clear that he is willing to backstop the president in this trade war. This is an adverse feedback loop that could get very dangerous. Jonathan joining us to discuss is Oksana Aronov, priya misra, and robert tipp. Jonathan im jonathan ferro. Oksana, that interplay between this is bloomberg real yield. The Federal Reserve and trade it is time for the final spread.
Poised potentially for of for the week of losses. In the bond market, the epicenter of the headlines. 170 is the estimate on wall street. Tom we will conflate a lot of economic talk. My major message is that the market still matter. It will be fascinating to see the reaction to the jobs report. Is a good news or bad news later this morning . Tom you know how much i hate that. I get confused by it. Employment is a big deal. 170 is a generous number and the Unemployment Rate matters. Jonathan lisa, adp was bad news. Lisa if you look at the revisions they have revised upwards. Their expectation is that the whisper number is 170,000. At what point is not good news but not too bad that means economic armageddon. They are waiting for something to break the cycle. Even though we have some common markets but they are still at 4. 7 . Jonathan there is a question in a program that was what is nobody asking you about . 2024. How bizarre is that . Its weird that we just need to get through the Fou
Positive by 0. 5 . It is all about the calendar this week, all about the tech earnings. Tuesday, tomorrow, tesla. Wednesday, meta. Thursday, google and microsoft. Lisa its going to be interesting to see whether even a beat is a disappointment to market because so far that has been the tone. Weve gotten the biggest selloff going back to late 2022. Have we already priced out that potential disappointment set out for a positive upside surprise, or is this a pivot point at a time and a lot of uncertainty . Jonathan lets talk about tesla. Downline 2. 4 this morning. More than 40 yeartodate and we start this week with another round of price cuts. Annmarie a string of bad news is coming to tesla and some tomorrow they are supposed report first revenue decline in four years. A challenging Earnings Call for elon musk. Not just the cuts. Across the board, china, europe and the u. S. , but also the job cuts. The fact that they are trying to basically pin the future on this robotaxi that remains a
Bloomberg surveillance. Manus is in the hot seat. We have cpi, ppi coming up next on the late. Because Bank Earnings we have Bank Earnings. Manus when the call ended at this morning to join surveillance, what a moment. No guidance is going to be revised higher because we are in a higher for longer weight. But going to jamie dimon says come he is not completely sure. 70 to 80 chance the market thinks there is a soft landing and i think the odds are lower. What is the rhetoric and guidance . Lisa that is what people are going to be watching for. We are expected to get jp morgan, wells fargo come at it click get citigroup. Markets are fascinating because we are looking at a situation where bonds are stuck in everything are still kind of really reeling. It raises a question, is this a market that can withstand peoples where they are withstand yields where they are . Annmarie and you siemens coming out about this no landing scenario. The reason earnings is so important is because of the dat
confirmed that the u.s. economy is in a good spot. absolutely. the u.s. is clearly the bright spot in the world. the u.s. economy is in good shape. we have to take into account what is happening in the rest of the world. it will be interesting to see if the effects of the coronavirus eventually come to our shores. something like 70% of the industrial production is still shut in china. we don t know when it comes back on. global growth takes a hit if china takes a hit. i think the markets may be range bound as we get through this. jonathan: joining me around the table here in new york is bob michele of j.p. morgan, priya misra of td securities, and matthew hornbach of morgan stanley. great jobs report with a big caveat. a big asterisk. all of this data for the month of january predates the scare coming out of china. how much can we read into this? priya: i think the jobs report is actually not that important. it is always a backward looking indicator. plus, we