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QUESTION: Marty, at the Orlando WEC, I asked you if your real estate forecasts for residential included condos. I believe you said no. I bought a house when your index elected a monthly bullish reversal in June 2020. Everything seems to have doubled since. Do you think your forecast into 2023 is influenced by the excessive spending of Biden?
Thank you.
KW
ANSWER: Yes, this is the single-family home index. It does not include commercial real estate or condos. It is always a combination of influences. It appears that Biden has provided the straw that broke the back of deflation. Central banks have been engaging in Quantitative Easing since 2008 without success. This has been largely caused by the collapse in confidence in the future. When people fear the future, they save. Increasing the money supply does nothing until the people decide to spend it.
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