absolutely no clear front-runner. normaler new york governor george pataki declared his candidacy thursday. lindsey graham is expected to announce monday. the quinnipiac poll shows no fewer than five candidates on the republican side tied for first place. even they only have about 10%. one thing the early polling tells us about the class of 2016, the republicans are going to have a real contest. the democrats, maybe not so much. and that is a big problem for democrats. you see, vigorous contested primaries are needed in order for democrats to win. look, just take a look at the track record of the last three democratic presidents. jimmy carter who was a relatively unknown former governor of georgia, ran as a washington outsider. in the post-watergate era. but there was more to his strategy. carter understood the importance of building momentum early in the race. he traveled to more than 50,000 miles, visited 37 states and delivered 200 speeches before any other candidates even