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Climate change may have worsened deadly Texas cold wave
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Climate change may not be altering winter jet stream, research shows
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Summary
For more than 10 years, climate scientists have explored a provocative idea: As Arctic sea ice melts and the polar atmosphere warms, the swirling winds that confine cold Arctic air could weaken, letting it spill farther south. But this idea has long faced skepticism from many atmospheric scientists. Now, the most comprehensive modeling investigation into this link has delivered the heaviest blow yet: Even after the massive sea ice loss expected by midcentury, the polar jet stream will only weaken by tiny amounts at most only 10% of its natural swings. And in today s world, the influence of ice loss on winter weather is negligible, finds the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). More than 100 scientists used a host of standardized climate models to probe the question. But as the experiment ran, it was also becoming apparent that the fast past of Arctic warming is less tied to sea ice loss and more to intruding warm temperatures
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A weaker, wavier jet stream allows Arctic air to spill south to midlatitudes. NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER SCIENTIFIC VISUALIZATION STUDIO
Landmark study casts doubt on controversial theory linking melting Arctic to severe winter weather
May. 12, 2021 , 12:10 PM
Every time severe winter weather strikes the United States or Europe, reporters are fond of saying that global warming may be to blame. The paradox goes like this: As Arctic sea ice melts and the polar atmosphere warms, the swirling winds that confine cold Arctic air weaken, letting it spill farther south. But this idea, popularized a decade ago, has long faced skepticism from many atmospheric scientists, who found the proposed linkage unconvincing and saw little evidence of it in simulations of the climate.