think we can be as high as 56 seats on election night. and i think we have a greater and greater chance of keeping the house. it may be slim but i feel good about it. brian: look back to 2016 and see how the polls were very close but they were wrong. bloomberg had hillary plus 3. you had reuters had hillary plus 5. mcclatchy hillary plus 2. when it comes to popular vote they were right. electoral, the way you play this game they were wrong. the fundamental way that things have shifted in the last few years is that the data on voters has gotten much better. you know who has voted and who has voted early. what that percentage of people who haven t voteside and what their percentages of voting in one party or another. you can actually be much more precise than you have in the past than just looking at polls. hooking at the number of people voting early is so much higher. both parties. republican enthusiasm continues to get jacked up and bringing people out there to make sure that
people i know about politics, and i m very curious about what specific races you are individually going to be looking at. like, if i had to ask you, what s one race you re looking at to see how the night is going to go, let s start with you, senator. yeah, it s pennsylvania 4, which is incumbent member scott perry. remember, pennsylvania got redistricted, and so i picked that race because it s actually a blend. he has 45% new district. so it s like are running in an seat and 55% incumbent district. so i think it points out, it s got the city of harrisburg, the city of york, it s got some rural areas, some suburban areas, it s a pretty good mic microco microcosm. and he it went from a plus 9 district to a plus 5 or 6 district. it s is a race that s margin of error is up 2 points in the latest poll that i ve seen. he got caught napping a little bit and the candidate that s running against him, typical of what the democrat an army veteran. someone who, you know, has come out he wo
how the night is going to go, let s start with you, senator. pennsylvania 4, which is incumbent member scott perry. pennsylvania got redistricted so i picked that race because it s a blend. he has 45% new district, so it s like running in an open seat, and 55% incumbent district. so i think it does it points out it s got the city of harrisburg, the city of york. it s got some rural areas, suburban harrisburg areas. a pretty good microcosm, and he it went from a plus-9 district to a plus 5 or 6 district. the margin of error is up two points in the latest poll i have seen. he got caught napping a little bit, and the candidate that s running against him, typical of what the democrats, army veteran, someone who has come out, he won the primary by throwing an ar-15 into the fire. but now he s running as a moderate democrat. this is the kind of thing you see. run to the left in the primary, run to the middle and say i m not that crazy after all. and van, what are you looking
click or visit a retail store today. sean: one week from today and some races are down to the wire. as of today, real clear politics map has democrats up 5 in the house. that s s how close it is. joining us now to help explain where things stand, former clinton pollster doug schoen. former trump campaign pollsters john mclachlan. doug, you were on with me, it s what the polls show. 32, what we say toss ups in the country. you told me just a couple ofin days ago, you said democrats plus 5. tonight, if the election were held today, i think you re right. i think the democrats would get the house because republicans have to sweep those 32 races.
that, democrats are probably winning districts in the five-point range. winning a few that are 10 points and so on. that s a great poll for democrats in the house. almost two different elections going on. you look at the poll and it s 23 net. they picked up 23 seats and you look at the poll like that and competitive and republican-leaning districts and the democrats think there is at least 23. there should be 30 for the democrats. in a poll like that, that brings up something like one or two races. at some point people cut money off. you have seen it in a couple of races. the nrcc and the outside groups will pull their money and pull their buys and move money elsewhere. if you are looking at races plus 5, 6, 10 republican and you are concerned, you are cutting loose