help him any time soon. the wild card is the president. the president knows his supporters and who his most vocal supporters have been. as bob notes the president knows who s been on tv supporting him so you can t calculate what he s going to do in his 280 character platform. i think the white house political operation is keenly aware of the map and that they don t have the money or resources to put into a plus 26 plus 27 republican district even if they wanted to so they ll try to stay away but you never know if the president decides he wants to wade into it. bob, before we go, it seemed to me like you were seeing the crafting of the defense by collins and this is hey, i lost money, there s nothing to see. what s your read? throughout this entire thing he s insisted he has played by
district, it brings us tonight to put this in some kind of context. this is going way back, a generation or two. this was is not one of the dists we talked about in 2016 that just flipped because of trump. it was for trump by about 20. it was for romney by basically the same margin in 2012. the big turn happened about the turn of the century. it s really become increasingly republican since then. this would not be just a drop-off from trump s levels. this would be a drop-off if there republican levels in the 21st century. the other thing, as we wait for the final votes that we can say with certainty right now since basically almost all the votes are in is that this continues a trend and a pattern that we ve been seeing in these special elections that goes all the way back to april of 2017 when we had the first congressional special election of the trump presidency. in that election, a wichita based district in kansas, it was trump plus 27 in 2016. they held the special election.
to wake up to, the fact that they shouldn t walk the plank for trump or they need to do more to sort of solidify whatever is going on with trump? a looming disaster for republicans on the stage of their biggest successes in american politics in a generation. these state capitals are the bread basket of republican politics and power and for donald trump in the midwest. these states like michigan and wisconsin are the places where he flipped a lot of these voters who were democrats. if there s weakening in those places, sit is a bad sign for te party and the president for 2018. joe? it s not just this wisconsin race. erin booth at the decision desk, democrats outperformed their past performance plus 13. in wisconsin, plus 24 in the house race. in the senate race plus 27.
digits. historically, if that s where a party is heading into a midterm that s a great place for that party to be. the president s approval rating, donald trump s average approval rating now sits at 39%. it s basically been in this range all the way. again, historically this is a number that clearly and overwhelmingly favors the opposition party. and the third trend that we ve been seeing is the actual results. this year remember we ve had a number of special house elections. now, look, the republicans won the first one out in kansas but the story here, a 20-point swing. it was a trump plus 27 district. the republican candidate only won it by 7. you saw more democratic enthusiasm there. you saw some traditional republican voters who didn t show up. you saw some republicans defecting. it wasn t enough for democrats to win but that s a significant swing, and that was the story we saw in montana. a 15 foint swing toward the democrats. we saw it in south carolina around rock hill, a 15-poi
every choice has a consequence, man. so before you do something, you ve got to think, damn, what s the possible consequence that could happen behind this, you know? and a lot of people don t think about that, man. a lot of people don t ponder the outcome of what they doing. they just do it until they realize, damn, man, this consequence is too harsh, what i just did. the reward don t outpay the risk. and before you know it, you re paying with your life, man. i m paying with my life. i ve got 50 years, man? you know, that s a life. i m 27. 50 plus 27. 77 years old, are you serious? come on, man. that s life.