because folks really just dont like the job that joe biden is doing as president. so if you look at joe biden s net job approval rating, what you see is in the beginning of 2021, plus 16 points. many more people approved than disapproved. jump ahead to october and december, what do you see? minus 10. many more people disapproved than approved. that s occurring at the same time where that large democratic advantage on party affiliation which was 12 points in january and march actually switched to a gop advantage of plus 1 in the passenger of the kaiser and gallup polling. what about independent voters? yeah, if you ask independent voters which way do you clean, this i think is the key nugget. which is, they are the swing voters. what you see now is in october to december, they are more likely to lean republican than democratic by plus 5 percentage points from january to march. the democrats had a nine-point advantage. very clearly independents moving towards the republican party.
south jersey commercial truck driver currently leading the race against senate president steven sweeney who has been there quite some time. he only spent a fraction of what his opponent did could throw the new jersey legislature into lots of uncertainty. i call it is perfect storm so to speak because you had all these factors and then you add on top a governor who ignored the wishes of the people. new jersey doesn t have an automatic recount. both sides could request one. we ll wait to hear the latest on that. bill: apparently he will talk today. we ll wait for that. nice to see you in hoboken. dana: colin reid former spokesman for chris tris tee and colin. i want to put this on the board here. biden s margin in 2020 was plus 16 in new jersey. murphy margin as of today is .8.
defeating senate president steve sweeney on a campaign that cost $153, the primary. about five grand in the overall. there is your winner right there. truck driver. kevin mccarthy yesterday, congressman, predicted that democrats even in states deep plus 16 like new jersey are vulnerable. a bold prediction but what happened tuesday night was extraordinary. yeah, john. when you look across the country, if you re not paying attention to down on the southern border a city that hasn t voted for a republican in 80 years elects a republican mayor, your previous guest talked about electing a retired policeman in a defund the police city. you talk about this guy knocking off the second most powerful democrat in new jersey after spending $153 and you look at the clean sweep that republicans made on statewide elections in
they look to 2022? last night we saw a candidate who kept trump away from him actually win. that s right. is that a message to other republicans that donald trump may be beloved by a limited base, a base that didn t put him in office for a second term but he loses on all other counts? that s exactly right, stephanie, and look, republicans had the opportunity of running in a macro environment. it was difficult for democrats, inflation is up. congressional democrats are in disarray. covid policy is kind of ping-ponging back and forth. we saw president biden on the world stage with afghanistan. this is not a good environment for democrats and so republicans have the luxury of just saying, hey, we ll do better, right? and that actually does resonate. you hit on a very fine point, which is the shift away from the biden plus ten in virginia or biden plus 16 in new jersey does suggest that the success of joe biden was in making promises to progressives, suggesting to
pelosi, how do they get that message across to the purity caucus? which, by the way, i was a member of it on the right, so i know of which i speak. to the purity caucus, that they re driving this party into the ground? if last night doesn t do it, i don t know what will. new jersey should do it. the fact we have a plus 16 state, and we might lose it? i mean, we ve got to go sell these things. we ve got to get this done. we made a mistake not passing the infrastructure bill bipartisan. instead, we decided to have a circular firing squad and allow, you know, a part of the party to say, no, no, you can t pass that until you pass the bigger thing. why? who cares? let s go pass this thing and go sell it to the american public and say, hey, we can govern. this is what we re going to do. i think a lot of lessons were learned last night. it allows joe biden to go to his to both sides of his party and say, enough. let s pass these things and sell