The OPEC+ alliance will raise its collective output caps by 350,000 b/d in May, another 350,000 b/d in June, and 441,000 b/d in July.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia, which has been cutting an extra 1 million b/d on top of its quota to help bolster the market, will unwind it by 250,000 b/d in May, 350,000 b/d in June and 400,000 b/d in July.
The surprise decision still saw front-month Brent futures rise almost 4% to above $65/b in the wake of the meeting after choppy trading earlier in the day as OPEC+ members debated their options. We believe bullish balances with sequential draws in the second and third quarters will firm up prices, with alignment between strong fundamentals and reflation trade lifting crude to fresh highs of $75-$76/b Brent in June-July, S&P Global Platts Analytics said in a note.