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US crude oil exports face challenges amid lower output US crude oil export flows that managed to stay afloat for much of 2020 are expected to sink in 2021 as decreased US output and recovering domestic refinery runs will mean fewer barrels to export. Production is expected to average only 10.44 million b/d in 2021 but will gradually recover to pre-COVID levels around 12.8 million b/d by late 2023, according to Platts Analytics. With fewer barrels available for export, total US crude exports are expected to decline to an average of 2.2 million b/d during 2021, down 1.0 million b/d from 2020 and far below the pre-COVID forecast of around 4 million b/d.

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