and it appears, though obviously it is not done yet. that kevin mccarthy may in fact have the votes. steve, can you give us a bit of a history lesson here. compare this to any other time in modern history. any other time in modern history there is none because,, the last time the speaker s vote went past one ballot was 1823, but, we will come right back to this, but just to put in some perspective, what the history of this is, you are looking at here, this is every speakers race in history, that s gone past one ballot. we put this together earlier, only 11 ballots, this is the 15th ballot, so right here in history is where the speakers race ranks, this is the fifth longest speakers race in the history of the country, and you can see the four that were longer than this were all pre civil war, this is going to finish well shy of a record of 133 minutes, if it does indeed finish here, 15 ballots will be the fifth longest in american history, and again we haven t seen this go p
kevin mccarthy will have to be seen as the leader taken down joe biden. because otherwise he will just look simply way too weak to survive as the speaker the next two years. will they get republican elected two years from now? probably not. there are a couple of theories in elections that we all know. turnout models, first persuasion models, negative partisanship is often stronger at motivating voters. it s not as though they re trying to convince the 1% of the country to come their way in two years. they re just going to try to turn out their voters, that s, it that s what they re about, that s what the investigations are about, and that s what surviving the debt limit, the optics around the debt limit will be about. let s listen in to the clerk, we re coming up to matt rosendale, republican of montana who voted for andy biggs last time. we re listening for rosendale, the republican to see if he votes present or for someone else. or for mccarthy. rosendale?
models. they had propensity models that would measure how likely you were to be to turn out. persuasion models, how likely you were to switch sides from romney or independent. what this did was for these two million volunteers, it made them tremendously more if isht when they d go door to door in a neighborhood. they won t have to go to every house on the block. they d go to mrs. jones at one house and mr. smith and could ignore the rest. they could find blue voters in red neighborhoods with this technology. so one of the key moments in the campaign of course, is the first debate. what happened? i got a whole chapter on that. essentially, the president wanted to get physical with romney. he wanted to be aggressive. his advisors were telling him don t do that. don t be aggressive. bad advice they said later because they said in prep every time they gave him a scalpel, he