about, especially among more suburban women, these are voters who maybe once were swing voters who now more solidly democratic. i mean, the early vote in general, and you look at the partisan models and you ve looked at some of those. you ve talked about texas. those numbers can be a little bit misleading. those talk about generic party i.d. and how people are likely to identify. keep in mind, we ve seen a big swing, especially when we re talking about some of these emerging competitive races like in texas and georgia. tom, quickly, i ve only got one minute. i apologize. where are the independents? they re not looking good in our latest nbc wall street journal poll. are they sitting out? are they part of this surge you re seeing in early voting? independents in general, they don t tend to vote as heavily in midterm elections. you re seeing an inkrocrease ov 2014, but they re not going to be at the level that core partisans turnout.
well, they are and they aren t. the key thing is turnouts, we are not seeing a great deal of shifting in terms of party id. we are seeing kind of the traditional, intensity gap being the party of the white house, if you look at 2010 obama had a 10-point gap in 2014, 11-point gap, 2006 we had an 8-point gap, right now the gap is running 7 points nationwide and the democrats are more intense and what you will see in the races including the race coming up in ohio next week is that the intensity is real issue, is not that voters are deciding one direction or the other, it s one side or the other is more intense and they ll turn out in larger margin and that makes difference in campaign. paul: right, if you look at the real clear politics average of the president s approval rating nationwide is about 43, 45% now,
paul: these numbers don t look good if you re a republican in the midwest, what do you think is going on there? well, they are and they aren t. the key thing is turnouts, we are not seeing a great deal of shifting in terms of party id. we are seeing kind of the traditional, intensity gap being the party of the white house, if you look at 2010 obama had a 10-point gap in 2014, 11-point gap, 2006 we had an 8-point gap, right now the gap is running 7 points nationwide and the democrats are more intense and what you will see in the races including the race coming up in ohio next week is that the intensity is real issue, is not that voters are deciding one direction or the other, it s one side or the other is more intense and they ll turn out in larger margin and that makes difference in campaign. paul: right, if you look at the real clear politics average of the president s approval rating
case because you spoke to people who filter or who may not like the messenger. they might be offended by some of those things that he has to say. but they filter through, they take what they want. yes. melissa: do you see that as becoming a theme? because there are those who have said, you know what? i do not like his style. but i like the result. and i m just getting used to the style. it does not bother me as much anymore. oftentimes party ideas is the strongest predictor of voting behavior in statewide, certainly in national elections. this is taking on a national theme. when you get to state, congress, senator, governor, other things come to place but party i.d. is a strong predictor and you have the president campaigning for a republican against a democrat, yes, voters will fill out what they do not like. melissa: and on the at otherhand the conventional wisdom says that with a republican president, at the mid-term the ems are supposed to win. and so there is a change in
you know what s not awesome? gig-speed internet. when only certain people can get it. let s fix that. let s give this guy gig- really? and these kids, and these guys, him, ah. oh hello. that lady, these houses! yes, yes and yes. and don t forget about them. uh huh, sure. still yes! xfinity delivers gig speed to more homes than anyone. now you can get it, too. welcome to the party. welcome back. today in meet the midterms, republicans are sounding the alarm after losing a state supreme court seat in wisconsin. this is the first time in 23 years that democrats or left, nobody has party i.d. have won on open seat on the supreme court in wisconsin.