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Sam Burer, professor of business analytics, received the inaugural Activity Group on Optimization Test of Time Award from the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.
Can the Tigers finally beat their PECOTA prediction? They only need 68 wins to do it.
Updated Feb 10, 2021;
Posted Feb 10, 2021
Detroit Tigers Isaac Paredes reacts after striking out during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2020, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)AP
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The PECOTA standings, released Tuesday, predict the Tigers will go 67-95, last place in the American League Central and just one game better than the Baltimore Orioles, who are picked for the bottom of the AL. (The Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies are predicted to be worse in the National League).
Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images
It’s PECOTA week at Baseball Prospectus, diving deep into their flagship projection system. It cleverly shares a name with nine-year major league infielder Bill Pecota, but also is an acronym, standing for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm.
Among the difficulties this year with projections is how to handle a truncated 2020 season that was 37 percent of a normal season’s length. Jonathan Judge tackles that and other questions, and in doing so used Clayton Kershaw, whose strong history (one ERA starting with a three in the last 12 years) gives more of a sense of certainty compared to White Sox pitcher Michael Kopech, who has more variance in his projections: