i m thinking about shirley chisolm. we re already in these historic moments and milestones, but i think that we need to pay a lot more attention to state legislature. these people are in charge of a lot of money and real issues that affect us on a daily life level. and we were talking in the ma makeup room where everything goes down about the established democratic party and how much they really want these rvoices f women who challenge the status quo. and what is your sense now two days before the election? you look at the polling that we have up here, here is how women are intending to vote. your sense of how the party has responded. i think that they are like the rest of established
you are a highly interested person, and you have voted before are or you are a younger voter expressing you a high level of interest, we count you as likely voter. sometimes you might look at a different poll and see what is going on. but to me it is more notable that we are assuming a better likely voter landscape for democrats than among just the broader swathe of registered voters. congressman, get in here. i would have taken those numbers any hour in a tough cycle. every midterm election is a referendum on the president and the president s party. a seven point lead in the generic is enough for the democrats to win the house. that is indisputable. the question is will they win it by taking in 26 or adding a net of 26, 27 or the mid-30s. i think that it will be closer to the mid-30s. it is also a referendum on the president s job afternoon approval. and when you are looking at low to mid 340% job approval for the
presidential level quality. and that has introduced a high degree of uncertainty. we ve never seen an electorate like this. so i think we have to be prepared for the unexpected as well. and you did a poll. 40% of registered voters say it will be a signal of opposition to president trump, 32% say a sign of support. 28% say it won t be a signal at all. what are you two looking at? i was hoping that the data would be desegregateded. because when we talk about women, i want to know about black women and about white women because we know white women tend to behave in a particular fashion. so that was my biggest issue with the poll. i want to know the nuance. when we say that the president has a 46% approval rating, are these the republicans who filled out the surveyor are we looking at predominantly men who are pushing those numbers up.
because i think people are starting to get exhausted of always being in campaign season. we d like to talk policy just once. we re excited and exhausted and we ll get our sleep hopefully on thursday and friday. we ll see. but the way that we measure enthusiasm in our poll, we ask people on a one to ten point scale how interested are you in these upcoming elections. and we identify high enthusiasm, people say either a nine or a ten, and what is extraordinary, we ended up having 70% of registered voters either at a nine or a ten. to put that in perspective, in october of 2016, it was at 72%. so we are seeing almost a presidential level type of enthusiasm where normally midterms like this, oh, this doesn t matter. i think that you are right, this is the neutral reality, but interest is sky high. and i do think this presents unpredictability. and we looked at the closing argument that candidate donald trump made in 2016 juxtaposed to
president, that tells you that it is also a good night for the democrats. the thing that i would really love to parse is where are independent voters breaking. independent voters reserve judgment, they really kind of wait for the last biweekend. and what i m hearing is that they seem to be chris rystal i r the democrats. i d be curious whether that theory is from this polling. so among likely voters in our poll, we had independents breaking 12 points in the democrat s direction. and democrats have a double digit lead among independents and also the enthusiasm advantage. and that is when you talk about the political kaleidoscope, when you turn it that earn is way and you say democrats have the enthusiasm advantage and are ahead with the middle of the electorate, they will have a very good night. there is just the uncertainty i think from the 2016 election and also we are showing just high level of interest almost