The Islamist militia s offensive has increased in tempo but the national army has been holding its own as it looks as though the US will become more involved, Al Shabaab launched more attacks in January and February than it had during all of last year. Most serious was its coordinated attack on 18 February in several districts of Mogadishu that destroyed police stations and allowed insurgents to capture weapons, ammunition and vehicles.
Western officials banged heads together in Mogadishu to forestall more clashes and force agreement. Polling should now end by 25 February, The country has stepped back from the brink once more as the tension eased between President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed Farmajo and the man he suspended as prime minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble, on 26 December. After standing to one side, western powers, in the shape of United States Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee, and Britain s Minister for Africa, Vicky Ford, sent an unequivocal message to get on with the elections.
The President s corruption of the electoral process has weakened security, presaging a more authoritarian politics, Hopes that the elections would open a new political chapter and more accountable governance look misplaced. Even if the troubled presidential elections are held in 2022, they re unlikely to bolster democratic forces in the country.
Farmajo s rival presidential candidates are so fed up with his manipulations of the electoral process they are calling for a boycott and mobilising their militias, Unable to negotiate with President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed Farmajo or curb his manipulation of the polls to ensure he can return as president, the alliance of the presidential candidates opposed to him – the Council of Presidential Candidates (CPC) – has called on its supporters to boycott the electoral process.
Gulf states are reviewing their alliances while Farmajo seeks salvation in Addis Ababa and Al Shabaab suffers unexpected reverses, President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed Farmajo flew to Addis Ababa on 3 October to attend the swearing-in of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister for another five years, hoping that the Ethiopian leader could help him with his domestic problems, sources in Mogadishu told Africa Confidential.