from moody s analytics which has done a pretty good job of predicting who will win the white house since 1980. what s the model saying? the model has been wrong only once. the model uses three separate measures. the model is saying the president will win. it uses sentiment, and you know consumer sentiment has been up. that s what s been leading gdp. people feel pretty good. unemployment numbers are at historic lows. there is the stock market and the s&p is up 30% since the president took office. so if you use these metrics, it certainly bodes well for president trump. but never forget, things could change, and we are headed at some point for a recession. we heard it just yesterday from jamie dimon, ceo of jpmorgan. stephanie ruhle in new york, thank you. that will do it for this hour of msnbc live. andrea mitchell is standing by in washington nationals red. and you were there.
keep your doctor. this president just takes credit every time he wants to take credit. he doesn t worry about there being that sort of disconnect. and we ll see. the political rules have not seemed to apply to him. so can he talk in those kinds of rosy ways even though people are not feeling it? here s an interesting point on that. here s a president who s had a distant relationship with the big players in the economy. they didn t respect him in new york and doesn t of great relationships with them. he spoke with the head of jpmorgan, bank of america and citi. that is a president who is nervous about the economy, as he should be. whatever his name is, whatever his party is, if you look at the data heading into re-election. so he s reaching out and talking. you made the point what did blue collar voters think, that s the interesting point. i want to show you what the farm bureau produced. the president is counting on them. but here s their point. we remade this graphic from the farm
every day, we talk to restaurant owners, newspaper vendors, who are saying my business is down 80 prl 80%. talk to me about the broader long-term impacts. the ceo of jpmorgan has us pretty scared. he talked about the first quarter growth could wind up being close to zero because of this. it s not just the 800,000 workers getting paid, it s all the government contractor whose business isn t getting done. it s the communities surrounding those contractors who don t have business. everybody else. that goes on down the line. the bigger picture not just the shutdown, it is the fundamental view setting in to consumers and businesses that the american government simply doesn t work. they can t find any agreement on this over some ridiculous border wall situation. then you have the march 1 deadline to get a deal with china on trade. then you have the debt limit coming up in the summer. if people start to think this government is broken, cab not serve the american people in any significant wa
after very good jobs numbers but you ve seen the markets and the upset and the volatility these last two months. how worried are you that this government shutdown impacts the economy and what can you tell us about the slow down that so many people are predicting right now? i think it will have some economic, an economic impact. how much we don t know yet. you know, the economy is the best i ve ever seen, maria, in my lifetime. look at the jobs report even last week. i think the economy could regenerate itself on another level now, all of the stock market has dropped and gone down , a lot of people out of the high-tech stocks we could get a second wind and take off again. we ve got a lot going for us in this country if we put all of these things together, quit bickering and fighting over little things and do what s right for the american people. maria: well you also have the competition of china. i m on my way after the program to san francisco to interview the chairman and ceo of jpm
your talk about health care. there s a group to make dreaming a great piece in the wall street journal op-ed saying, this bill does not kill everything and obamacare well, if you take that attitude, then everything and obamacare is going to stand the books, it gets rid of the mandates. taxes, puts the stage that a better places. biggest reform of medicaid in the history of our country, yet, because it is not hundred% perfect, somebody will vote to keep the status quo and power. his point was, become a team member. get it done. make incremental progress, and can keep the job. spew what we talked about that barnes piece before. i will allow your voice now to be transmitted through jamie deming, the ceo of jpmorgan, through a conference call in out there intentionally, because he said this.