Goehring & Rozencwajg Q3 2023 Natural Resource Market Commentary seekingalpha.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from seekingalpha.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
Financial crisis, rooted in a lack of system resilience and robustness, is a particular type of critical transition that may cause grievous economic and social losses and should be warned against as early as possible. Regarding the financial system as a time-varying network, researchers have identified early warning signals from the changing dynamics of network motifs. In addition, network motifs have many different morphologies that unveil high-order correlation patterns of a financial system, whose synchronous change represents the dramatic shift in the financial system’s functionality and may indicate a financial crisis; however, it is less studied. This paper proposes motif transition intensity as a novel method that quantifies the synchronous change of network motifs in detail. Applying this method to stock networks, we developed three early warning indicators. Empirically, we conducted a horse race to predict ten global crises during 1991-2020. The results show evidence that th