the tensions mount as the early numbers start to come in. compared to the last time he ran, roy moore, is the blue filling in where it s supposed to be blue and the red where it s supposed to be red? significant changes so far early in the contest. david chalian was making this point earlier. let s go back to the history first. 2016, donald trump wins. let s go back to 2012, mitt romney wins and wins comfortably. remember, 61 to 38 in the presidential race. this is the last time roy moore was on the ballot running for chief justice. 52%. dramatically underperforming the republican presidential candidate in his own state. and so what do you have here? you have the democratic candidate winning across here. this is why i circled that earlier. the democratic candidate beating losing the race by 3 1/2, 4 points but beating roy moore down here and up here. see the red up here? i m going to use a different color to tell the distinction. the red is where roy moore needs to run it up. thi
women, republican women. did that work or didn t it work? we really don t know at this point but he needs to get a huge chunk of those voters to get across the finish line. amanda, i want to hear from you quickly. what makes this race exciting we get a preview of what s going to happen in 2018 and 2020. ro roy moore is running the trump playbook. and also denying sexual allegations and the very exact same way that donald trump has in the past and continues to do so today. but also in the democratic side, you see the democrats still struggle to gain their footing in the post-obama world. they re trying their best to capitalize on anger and resentment by women and minorities. that is a dynamic that is not going to change tonight, in 2018 or 2020. that will hold. let s check in with david chalian. again, you re getting some more numbers. anderson, you guys were just talk talking about with david axelrod, the college ed waited white voters in alabama. take a look at how they split
kind of what that will mean coming out of here will be a big issue tomorrow because if moore wins then steve bannon is going to be empowered, that wing of the party will be empowered. this is potentially even more divisive within the party not just about what the ethics investigation and how that is going to go as well. do you buy that? i don t think that steve is going to come out of this in better shape given the tremendous veils of what his candidate has put his party and is going to put this party to if he s successful. i m not sure this is this is the a great night for steve, even if roy moore wins. look, i happen to believe that a lot of folks, particularly those whi white suburban voters, find it hard to say they voted for roy moore. if this is this race is a daddy heat, i think roy moore s the
the republican base. just the inability for conservative person who has never voted democrat in his or her life to full lever for a democrat, or just this is something that s interesting. a lasting impact that sort of embedded in the culture of many southern areas that they don t like people coming from the outside and telling them what to do, and all those things could be reasons for the i wouldn t necessarily say it s a moore surge, but the fact is he does seem to have them. we have a key race alert 5% of the vote has been counted. roy moore, the republican, he s slightly ahead, 51.2% to doug jones 47.4%, about 2,500 vote advantage for roy moore over doug jones. but once again, 5% of the vote is in. roy moore takes a slight
the mainstream for the general electorate. democrats, again, a tricky situation, you re right, because he doesn t want to be seen as the democrat national brand down in alabama, but the moment moore won that primary, they went in. remember, anderson, there was a fox news poll, again, a month before the allegations that had this race tied. moore is a particularly problematic candidate prior to the allegations and the democrats seized that opportunity early. but they had to be so carol. i mean, you had barack obama doing a robocall at the last minute. joe biden went in in october i believe and you had john lewis and cory booker down there, but they were tip toeing because they didn t want to alienate those suburban republican women who might cross over. they didn t want to alienate any potential moderate republicans. when he went down there, were you wearing a disguise? i drove in in the cover of darkness. briefly, the way it s done is you take a candidate like doug jones who knows