that s how we got john mccain in 2008 with a third of the republicans supporting him. mitt romney never got a majority of republicans to support him. jeb bush keeping his name i.d. and he keeps his money and ishis powder dry, he can win the primary. he goes with one of the nonestablishment candidates who won t have as much money and this is a long drawn-out siege. so bush can win. but bush s main problem is his name. people don t want to go back to the bush years. they think they ve already closed the chapter on that and there was disappointment in the bush presidency among many republicans. who right now on this date who do you have your money on or who would you look at? again, i think jeb bush is the leader in the establishment primary and then a separate primary nonwashington people scott walker still has the edge.
marrow rubio. and for the nonestablishment it s scot walker with marco rubio straddling both things and i think scott walker in the lead and we have to sort out the two primaries first early in the year and then probably one against the other. and that will be the real contest. right now you talk about jeb bush as the presumptive front-runner but the polls don t show that. let s take a look at what dan balls in the washington post says today. the former florida governor is still the biggest name in the gop field with the fund raising network unmatched by any of the others but bush s considerable assets have done little to reshape the early polls or keep other contenders out of the race. if anything that s the opposite. why would that be and can bush reclaim the official lead or doesn t it matter this early in the race? he is a good candidate and shows that in the past in florida. in the end, you don t have to win a majority of the republican primary voters.
scott walker is a governor. he won election in a state three times. and there are other candidates bidding for the tea party vote. bobby jindal and others. so it s a divided field and take months the sort this out. while activists in iowa and new hampshire paying attention, most republicans wait for the show to come to them. what happens if it does take you know as it do say, it takes months to play out. will the numbers change or since you have more of evangelicals in iowa and could skew the numbers somewhat? and here s the other ise, you don t have to get that much to be the lead. i think there are two primaries. one is going to be for candidate that s more or less an establishment washington supported candidate and one that s going to be for nonestablishment nonwashington candidate, especially the governors. right now i would say the front-runner for the establishment spot is jeb bush although being challenged by