editorial director at the huffington post and an msnbc political analyst. let s take a look at that question, with you two gentleman. here we are going into a big weekend. it s the first weekend where it really looks like newt is going to be the front-runner, going through right to january 3rd. and all of a sudden we re hearing from all across the board, especially the intellectuals, like peggy noonan and kathleen kathleen parker. a lot of them are starting to write up now, oh, my god, oh, my god, in the modern lexicon, this guy, newt, might win the nomination. well, i think there s a sense, yes, that he d do that, he d be bad for the party. if you look at our poll, the nbc news/washington journal poll, it gets republicans to focus here on the fact, can he really beat obama? and don t forget, the anti-obama vibe, that sentiment is really what s driving republicans more
partly because there s part of a dead zone. what s happening with all of the primaries being moved up from february to january, now there s a little bit of a dead zone there in february. and if newt is the guy, then everybody s going to go after him for an uninterrupted period of time, which he can t really necessarily answer with primary victories, if he s going to have them. a couple things about him, though. he can see around corners. it s not just that he lives off the land. he does have a strategic mind. he attacked paul ryan for social engineering. the fact is paul ryan now is offering a different plan. he s now, in effect, confirming what newt said. newt s problem is that the people who know him best, who work with him when he was in the congress, who worked with him on drafting the contract with america, most of those people are not with him. why are they not with him? why are they not with him? a real conservative, peggy noonan, who wrote for president reagan and writes be
can they stop newt? plus, who knew? w.h.o. is the 50,000 watt station that dominates iowa and the host to see if you want to win the republican nomination is simon conway. tonight we ll simulcast with him. we ll be on his show and he ll be on hours. and find out what voters are really thinking in iowa. also, two days ago, we gave you the obama campaign s many projected paths to victory. well, tonight, what state does the republican nominee have to take back from obama to win the white house? we ll ask the hardball strategists. and the american war in iraq is officially over. after nine years, 4,500 american lives, and thousands of wounded, was it worth it? and let me finish with my thoughts on whether the republican big shots can stop the stampede toward newt. we begin with the republican establishment and their struggle to not have newt on the ticket. nbc s david gregory is moderator of meet the press. and howard fineman is the
when he s challenged or he feels he s being upstaged, look out, he ll grab whatever s handy and throw it at the component. that s what a good debater does. he can think in your presence and think on his feet. the problem is, he doesn t necessarily think it through on his feet. that comes to hurt him. remember, pat jermon long ago used to say, this candidate lives off the land. he sees something on the ground in front of him, he hears his opponent say something, and he uses nit that moment. i m not even sure barack obama has that skill, to use something learned in the course of that debate to use in that debate. and back in maine, he got in trouble about paul ryan s plan. what he said in the course of that interview, what he acknowledged, it was his lack of discipline that was a problem. his ability to think and talk more like a professor than a presidential candidate that gets him into trouble. one other point about the calendar, february, february is what could stop newt in his