THE PATTERN
Climatologically, we can look at the large-scale pattern for a hint as to what the season will entail.
Last year we went into a La Nina pattern, which is shown by the cooler sea surface temps in the eastern Equatorial Pacific. So far, La Nina has held. We may go into a Neutral Phase later this summer, but for now the spring season has La Nina signifiers.
This can lead to drier conditions to the south and wetter conditions to our east and colder conditions to our north. We are typically more often in an area conducive to severe weather in La Nina and Neutral Phase years. Research shows the Southern Plains get stronger storms in La Nina and that can leak into our region.